Intro by Kevin Pelton on Friday, December 22nd, 2006 at 2:45 pm | permalink | trackback |

Original Article: http://www.nba.com/sonics/news/lewis061222.html

SEATTLE - Sonics General manager Rick Sund announced today that an MRI performed late yesterday revealed that Sonics forward Rashard Lewis suffered an injury to the tendon sheath on the back of his right hand. Lewis will undergo outpatient surgery this afternoon performed by Dr. Carleton Keck to repair the injury, and is expected to miss eight weeks.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Saturday, December 9th, 2006 at 2:40 pm | permalink | trackback |

Original Article: http://www.sports-central.org/sports/2006/12/08/how_apbrmetrics_is_changing_the_nba.php

SC: How many NBA teams employ a person such as yourself, either full time or as a consultant?

Dean Oliver: A handful. There are about five teams with people who do what I do. It involves pretty serious statistical analysis, and very few are qualified. Houston is the easiest example, in that they have a few quantitative analysts on staff. Everyone in the NBA in this field is pretty successful. It is a tough position to fill. It's not just about producing spreadsheets and information. A person must be both knowledgeable about the game, and technically competent, because the statistics must tell a clear story. It's about translation — one can't simply have a computer science background, or a basketball background, but both.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Thursday, December 7th, 2006 at 9:03 pm | permalink | trackback |

Original Article: http://www.nba.com/sonics/news/allen061207.html

The Seattle SuperSonics will be without All-Star shooting guard Ray Allen for the next two weeks because of a contusion of the talus bone in his right ankle, the team found out Thursday.

Allen missed Tuesday's Sonics win over Atlanta with the injury, which was revealed by an MRI conducted Wednesday. He met with doctors on Thursday to get a timeline for his return. Allen will not play in either of the Sonics next two games or on their upcoming five-game road trip before being re-evaluated in two weeks.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Tuesday, November 21st, 2006 at 2:07 am | permalink | trackback |

Original Article: http://www.nj.com/newslogs/nets/index.ssf?/mtlogs/njo_netsblast/archives/2006_11.html#205905

It may have occurred to you that the league seems more point-guard driven than ever before, partly because everyone outside of the island of Manhattan has a competent one. We don't usually look up stuff like this, but 11 PG's are averaging 17-plus right now, and 21 of them are averaging 14.7 or better. A year ago, those totals were nine and 12, respectively. Easy conclusion: It's becoming more of a scoring position.

Slightly more difficult conclusions: The new rules interpretations continue to have a major impact and young PGs are growing up around the league (D. Williams, Ridnour, Ford, even Telfair).

 Thoughts?

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Sunday, November 5th, 2006 at 1:35 am | permalink | trackback |

Original Article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/kelly_dwyer/11/03/inside.nba/index.html

1. Steve Nash

Nash is known more for the drive-and-dish than the catch-and-shoot, but let's be clear here. What sets up the drive? Is it the dish? Hardly. It's Nash's superior range and touch from the perimeter. He isn't the fastest guy in the league, so he needs the threat of a well-placed long jumper to force defenders to play him tight.

I'm biased, but I'll take Ray Allen (#2 on Dwyer's list) seven days a week and twice on Sundays. Having the opportunity to watch him on a daily basis is truly a pleasure.

Was it really just a year or two ago that this discussion was framed as a debate between Allen and Peja Stojakovic?

Lastly, we're saving some room on the Kevin Martin bandwagon if you want to go ahead and jump on after he started the season with 53 points on 19-for-30 shooting in his first two games. Be sure to thank Tom Ziller, your humble driver.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Tuesday, October 31st, 2006 at 1:26 am | permalink | trackback |

Original Article: http://www.nba.com/sonics/news/ridnour_feature_061030.html

"We had a lot of conversation this weekend because it was pretty close," said Sund. "It was cooperative.

"You've got to get a number that's fair for him and fair for the team. I think that was it. It's a situation that he's got an upside for him that if he continues to get better and yet he still gets some decent security. We're happy with that because it's a reasonable number for us and we've got several more years with him."

Tuesday is the deadline for players to sign extensions, and Ridnour and the Hornets' David West both agreed to terms Monday.

Big names still without extensions include Kirk Hinrich, Darko and T.J. Ford.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Tuesday, April 4th, 2006 at 12:23 am | permalink | trackback |

Original Article: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2395006

Barkley and Wilkins each got the required 18 votes from the honors committee and will join former Detroit Pistons guard Joe Dumars, Connecticut women's coach Geno Auriemma, Italian coach Sandro Gamba and longtime contributor Dave Gavitt at September's induction in Springfield, Mass.

"Charles and I go back since college," Wilkins said Monday after the announcement was made. "None of us thought this would happen, we just wanted to play basketball. This is the highest honor that can ever be paid, and it's mind-blowing."

A Hall of Fame without Dominique Wilkins was not a Hall of Fame I wished to know.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Tuesday, April 4th, 2006 at 12:19 am | permalink | trackback |

A quick look at the early reaction to the Rockets naming Daryl Morey as assistant GM and the successor to Carroll Dawson as GM:

Marty Burns, SI.com

NBA teams have been employing number-crunching stat heads more and more in recent years. But some around the league wonder how valuable such analysis can be in a five-man game that is impacted by so many variable factors.

"Everybody's got stat guys now," the GM said. "There's a benefit to them for sure. It's one more tool. But you still have to see it. There's a gut and a feel and a chemistry of a team that can't be told through numbers."

Mike Monroe, San Antonio Express-News

It may well be that Alexander was using the Spurs as a template when he opted to hire Morey. But the Rockets' owner erred if he focused on 29-year-old Spurs assistant GM Sam Presti as a basketball "stats geek" who had data-based his way to the draft night advantage that enabled the Spurs to identify contributing players from the bottom of the first round. He failed to recognize that Presti has emerged as a top-notch grassroots scout. Presti's primary tool isn't a laptop computer. It's a pair of eyeballs.

Jonathan Feigen, Houston Chronicle

Be wary of the criticism of the Rockets' selection of their next general manager levied by basketball writers around the country.

They're just angry they didn't get the job.

Meanwhile, Morey keeps saying the right things:

"I think it can bring an advantage, as long as you respect all that is available in traditional scouting," Morey said of his training and education at Northwestern and MIT. "I'm sure I have different perspective to bring to Carroll Dawson to help make the strongest basketball decisions. I think it's very exciting. I'm sad to leave the Celtics. I've had a unique opportunity to work with Danny Ainge and Wyc Grousbeck (Celtics chairman). I'm excited about joining Carroll Dawson and the Rockets as assistant general manager. I think I bring another perspective to Carroll and his style. We all have a common goal to put together another championship team.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Tuesday, April 4th, 2006 at 12:08 am | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://www.nba.com/bobcats/news/release_rush_06040...

"The Bobcats are about two things – hard work and maximum effort," Bickerstaff said. "With that in mind, we think that it is best to go in a different direction with Kareem."

Ouch.

But suddenly that's not the story. Phil Jackson (Rush's former coach, and presumably something of an expert on his work ethic) responded:

"I thought it was vindictive," Jackson said. "I don't like to see it because he's one of the guys that we nurtured here. He was contributing to us a lot in the championship (run) two years ago. "

And then Bickerstaff fired back:

"Phil has that ability," to judge, Bickerstaff said sarcastically. "He was in our locker room ... at our games."

"He probably forgets he wrote a book for profit and (revealed everybody's confidences). So he has no credibility," Bickerstaff said of Jackson.

Over/under on when Jackson references his championship rings?

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Thursday, March 30th, 2006 at 12:03 pm | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/3758241...

Morey's position with the Celtics is his first in sports. He teaches a course at MIT, where he received his masters in business administration in "Analytical Sports Management."

With the Celtics, he is not listed with the basketball operations department led by executive director of basketball operations Danny Ainge and general manager Chris Wallace. Morey "focuses on arena operations, risk management, basketball analytics, and ticket sales strategy, pricing and technology infrastructure."

Though many NBA teams, including the Rockets, have expanded their study of statistical player evaluations, the hiring of Morey could be viewed as the NBA's first move toward baseball's Moneyball trend. Moneyball was a 2003 book that detailed the Oakland Athletics' move away from scouting in favor of more statistical-based analysis. Several baseball teams, including the Red Sox with general manager Theo Epstein, have hired executives with non-traditional baseball backgrounds.

While I would certainly disagree that this is the NBA's "first move" towards Moneyball, this is certainly an interesting move in that direction. Morey looks like he will have more power than anyone else with an analytical background in the league.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Thursday, March 30th, 2006 at 12:00 pm | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jack...

If the Phoenix Suns are going to win an NBA championship this season — and that is their stated goal — they will most likely have to do it without star frontcourtman Amaré Stoudemire.

Stoudemire's comeback from surgery on his left knee lasted only three games before the Suns decided to shut him down, "maybe for three days, maybe for 10 days, maybe for the rest of the season," according to coach/general manager Mike D'Antoni.

The best guess? The rest of the season.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Friday, March 24th, 2006 at 2:06 am | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://www.82games.com/lawhorn.htm

We've all been there. Our team has a 3-point lead, and the clock is winding down. The opposing team has the ball, and it looks like we're one play away from victory. What should we do defensively to secure the win?

The purpose of this research article is to answer precisely that question. First, let's take a look at the most definable situation: when the game clock is down to a few seconds (final possession), and the team with the ball needs a ‘3′ to tie the game and send it into overtime.

Interesting research and it's good to have some firm numbers to work with. At the same time, my biggest concern about fouling is the worry that players will accidentally foul on a 3 or while a player is shooting and have them hit the shot, which introduces possibilities which aren't really discussed at all.

I also think Lawhorn is overly dismissive of the multiple possession situation. In the NBA, if you have a timeout, you can get two possessions in under 10 seconds without too much difficulty and the numbers show that fouling doesn't work very well if the opponent gets the ball back.

That said, great stuff and well worth the read.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006 at 9:50 pm | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/82ga...

While PER does not account for all facets of a player's performance — among them intangibles and one-on-one defensive ability — in terms of what can be measured, Paul is having the best rookie season since fellow Wake Forest product Duncan entered the league eight years ago. Since the start of this decade, only three players — Elton Brand (20.63), Yao Ming (20.59) and a fluky Marquis Daniels (20.10) — have posted PERs north of the 20.0 mark as rookies.

Looking at overall performance, however, only begins to scratch the surface of what Paul is doing. The next step is to take a good look at the final column of the chart. Consider that Paul is putting up 16.2 points, 8.0 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game at age 20. He won't be old enough to join his Hornets teammates in a bar until May 6.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006 at 2:30 am | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://www.82games.com/assisted.htm

So a shot that comes by virtue of an "assist worthy" pass had an over 8% better chance of going in for the sample we looked at! That is of course huge evidence for the value of an assist. In addition, more than half of field goal attempts occurred where our charters would have awarded an assist had the shot gone in.

Interestingly the shot type had quite a lot to do with the expectations — three point shots were seldom taken without a ‘potential assist' pass beforehand, and the gain was just 3.7% in accuracy. This might suggest NBA players seldom settle for a three when they have held the ball/dribbled for a while, or perhaps we should be more restrictive in defining a potential assist such that a "catch and shoot" doesn't automatically qualify.

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Tuesday, March 21st, 2006 at 5:37 pm | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/sto...

Hollinger picks the league's 12 most underrated players:

Nazr Mohammed, Spurs

I'm cheating a little and playing Mohammed at his natural position on this team since he's only 6-9. Whether at power forward or center, he is easily overlooked because of his lack of athleticism and terrible hands. Yet at the end of the day, his intelligent positioning under the boards and effective, if hideous, 10-foot jumper combine to yield consistent results.

That's the kind of guy we often undervalue, especially when it comes in such an unathletic package. But he's shooting 52.7 percent from the field and has one of the best rebound rates at the center position. Thieving him from the Knicks a year ago was a key to San Antonio's championship run last season and could help the Spurs to another ring this year.

I'm going to agree to disagree here. The Spurs defend worse with Mohammed on the floor, a trend that was even more pronounced last year. While his offensive rebounds and putbacks are great, it's hard to defend well with a non-shot-blocker in the middle (even if you're the Spurs and you also have Tim Duncan).

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Intro by Kevin Pelton on Friday, March 17th, 2006 at 8:23 pm | permalink | trackback |

LINK: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/sto...

Take the NBA's MVP race, for instance. In one corner, we have the players who are compiling prolific numbers, but for teams that have been inconsistent: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson. In the other corner, we have players who don't look like a stereotypical MVP statistically, but whose teams have enjoyed great success: Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker, Dirk Nowitzki.

And then, somehow largely omitted from the discussion, we have the one guy who is performing at an absurdly high level and doing it on a contending team: Dwyane Wade. Yet we've hardly heard a peep about his being the league's Most Valuable Player.

We usually don't link to Insider articles, but I'm very interested to see everyone's thoughts on the general point: Is Wade getting enough love in the MVP discussion?

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