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by Rob L | permalink | trackback | comments |
In October, the Courtside Times staff gazed into its crystal ball (or spreadsheet) and answered some questions regarding the NBA season. Now that the All-Star Break is upon us, it seemed a nice time to revisit the Western Conference topics originally covered here. 1. Which playoff team from last season is most likely to take a step backwards into the lottery? Gabe Farkas - I originally picked Denver, based on their only notable off-season moves being the JR Smith signing, and trading Ruben Patterson for Joe Smith. What I neglected to note was (a) bringing in Dean Oliver to consult, and (b) the possibility of trading for a big name, which they did. Both seem to be promising. On the other hand, despite being hot at the end of last year after getting Artest, the Kings have cooled significantly this year, but are still only about 2 games out of the playoffs. The teams standing in their way for the 7th and 8th seeds (the Nuggets, Clippers, Wolves, Hornets, and Warriors) are all bunched together with similar records. If forced to choose, I'd go with Denver and LA making it in, and possibly the Hornets having an outside chance. Sorry Sacto, but besides being able to run up and down the court, you don't exhibit any one strength (17th in ORtg, 14th in DRtg) compared to teams like New Orleans (8th in D) and Denver (9th in O, 10th in D). Lastly, I completely acknowledge vastly underestimating the effect that Gasol's injury would have on the Grizz. Hoopinion - Hey, I got one right. Memphis are a mess. Kevin Pelton - For the record, I didn't answer any of these during the preseason. Memphis was and remains the obvious answer. The interesting question is how much of the explanation is Pau Gasol's injury, how much was the trade of Shane Battier and how much was other factors. The season was pretty much already a wash by the time Gasol came back, but surprisingly Memphis has not been better with Gasol — his net plus-minus is actually slightly negative. By the way, an update on the Grizzlies under Tony Barone, Jr.: Offensive Rating - 111.8 (105.0 under Mike Fratello) 2. Does Don Nelson end the dozen year playoff drought in the Bay Area? Gabe Farkas - Nellie is pushing the tempo in Oakland, as he did last time he was coaching there. Unfortunately, he's just discovering that Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, and Stephen Davis aren't Tim Hardaway, Mitch Ritchmond, and Chris Mullin. Ironic, since Mullin is now running the team's front office. I don't see them making the playoffs this year, and with the potential for Mullin/Nelson pulling the trigger on lots of trades in the next few years, I'm afraid to say anything else. Hoopinion - The Dunleavy Era in Oakland lasted about a game, so full marks to Nellie for aborting that experiment quickly as well as getting good production out of Biedrins whom I feared would get buried on the bench. They're only a game-and-a-half out the eighth spot despite Davis, Richardson, and Pietrus all missing significant time. That has more to do with the seventh through twelfth teams in the West being worse than I expected. Monta Ellis is better (and healthier, thus far) than I ever imagined and Al Harrington seems to have turned into a good three-point shooter so now there's a part of basketball he's good at. Kevin Pelton - I don't know if anything would surprise me with regards to the eighth playoff seed in the West. Nelson has gotten quality performances from some surprising sources (most notably Matt Barnes), has youngsters like Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins playing and contributing (Biedrins more so than Ellis) and has helped Golden State overcome injuries. Still, that might not be enough for the Warriors to break the playoff drought. Rob L - Don Nelson has surprised me. Or has Monta and Biedrins surprised me? Or has the strangest blockbuster trade that I can remember surprised me? Oh well. I'll stick to my guns on this and say no. Though I'll acknowledge my thinking of Houston for the eight seed was ridiculous. 3. Can the Rockets get their offense together this year? Gabe Farkas - My original answer was "yes, with an if... (...T-Mac and Yao can stay healthy)". Does anyone mind if I gloat for a little while? Hoopinion - I went with the bold answer "almost certainly" prior to the season. They're 16th in the league in Offensive Efficiency with Yao missing 23 games and McGrady missing eight. Snyder, Wells, Spanoulis, Novak, and Little John Lucas have been non-factors (more or less) and 82games has the offense a point worse per 100 possessions when Battier's on the court which is surprising. If everyone's healthy, though, the Rockets will be a big part of the Western Conference Playoffs being completely awesome this Spring. Kevin Pelton - Middle of the pack on offense is good enough when you've got the league's best defense. Rob L - The Rockets are hovering around mid-league offensively, which is the highest Van Gundy Rockets usually get. It is a huge improvement over last season's offense, and might be enough to shock someone in the playoffs. I'm looking at you San Antonio. 4. Which Western Conference rookie will have the best season? Gabe Farkas - Has anyone seen Paul Milsapp and Danny Fortson circa 2002 in the same place at the same time? Milsapp has been quite impressive on the boards, but I think Brandon Roy is still the frontrunner. There's some rumbling about Adam Morrison, but no one seems to notice that he's woefully inefficient (.376 FG%, .443 TS%) and hasn't done much of anything else (not a lot of rebounds or assists, and disgraceful 7.9 PER). Hoopinion - Millsap has been great (as has Jerry Sloan's limited use of Jarron Collins) in the minutes he's received. Roy has been good in more extended action, and I'm pleasantly surprised that Aldridge has blossomed so quickly. I think he's going to turn into a really good (and more durable) version of Marcus Camby. Foye's had a fine rookie year and shouldn't be behind Mike James in the rotation for long. As I expected, Quincy Douby hasn't played much, but I still believe (as I do with PJ Tucker) in his future usefulness. Kevin Pelton - Roy for ROY! Seriously, we're talking about a polished, versatile four-year college player who carried his team all year long as a senior (a fact that has become more evident with my alma mater's play this season). I'm incredibly biased, but Brandon Roy has been the biggest contributor amongst rookies despite an early injury. Rob L - Brandon Roy is the only contender. And thank you, Kevin, for reminding me of something. I was sitting around the other day wondering what had happened in the NBA to make rookies such a non-factor. I forgot that four-year guy's like Roy used to be the norm entering the league. Nowadays, not so much. 5. Which team could challenge the big three of San Antonio/Dallas/Phoenix? Hoopinion - Houston, still, if healthy when the time comes. The Lakers (also when healthy) are even better than I expected and could win a series against anyone. Gabe Farkas - I originally (and somewhat brashly) predicted a big year for the Clippers, citing a healthy Corey Maggette, the addition of a few role players, and expecting another big step for Elton Brand. Honestly? I have no idea what happened to them. Given a cursory glance, it seems like everything should be clicking. However, if you dig deeper, Cassell is 37 years old and only playing 27 minutes a game. He's still passing and scoring fairly efficiently, but just doing it less per game. That means more of the PG duties fall to Shaun Livingston. An extra turnover here, a few less assists there, a few less points scored here, and a few more missed FTs there. I guess it all adds up. At this point, I'd have to peg Denver as the team that can most likely challenge the big 3. I'll be one of the last people to undervalue AI, so maybe I'm a little biased, but I see them gelling at the right time. Kevin Pelton - Interesting - no love for Utah here? I see them following the Sonics/Clippers playbook from the last two seasons. That entails a surprising playoff run, a win in the first round a hard-fought loss to a top team in the semifinals. That said, if someone's going to beat one of the top three teams, I think it's going to be Houston. Their defense is legit and they've got two guys, who, with Gabe's caveat (staying healthy), can carry them in the postseason. Rob L - EDIT: I had somehow mismatched the Jazz and
Rockets for first round playoffs. They will most likely face each
other. I still take Utah. Hoopinion - I was completely wrong about the Northwest even before one takes into account the events in Denver. Utah is obviously going to win the division, and, if they don't have a top four record, they should be close enough that the seeding system won't be egregiously misguided. And the Nuggets should get the Northwest a second playoff team. Gabe Farkas - Before the season, I picked the Sonics to make the leap, expecting (hoping) they could pick up their defense, to match an already-potent offense. Not only are they ranked 27th in Defensive Efficiency, but their offense has dropped a notch too (down to 10th). That said, I keep coming back to the Denver Nuggets. I really can't underscore enough what Iverson is doing. Compared to his numbers in Philly this year, his eFG%, 3P%, and AssistRate have all gone up, while bringing his notoriously high Usage Rate slightly down (presumably to accommodate Carmelo and the other scorers on the team). We have arguably the most competitive guy in the league making the requisite sacrifices so his team can win. Kevin Pelton - If the season ended at the All-Star break, Utah, Denver and Minnesota would all be in the playoffs, so let's show some love for the Northwest Division and get a worthwhile reminder that stats geek, scout or fan, predicting how teams are going to perform is nigh impossible. Rob L - The Northwest is indeed looking much better. I'm glad too. A two-legged Western Conference stool was no fun. 7. Which is the stronger division, top to bottom: the Southwest or the Pacific? Hoopinion - Memphis has decided this question in favor of the Pacific. Gabe Farkas - If the Hornets can overtake the Clippers for the final playoff spot, that will make four teams from the Southwest in the playoffs, compared to only two from the Pacific division. Gasol hasn't helped the Grizz as much as expected (8-21 with him back, 5-18 before), but the other four teams are solid. Kevin Pelton - The Southwest's cumulative record is 150-114, the Pacific's 141-121. If you compare teams head to head: 1. Dallas-Phoenix ... the only advantage I see for the Pacific is amongst the last-place teams. I'll take the Southwest. (The Northwest, just for the record, is 128-133). 8. Which West team has the brightest future, in terms of young talent, salary cap flexibility, and a smart front office? Which has the bleakest future? Hoopinion - Portland has had some immediate (realtive) success with their young players. As long as Kevin Pritchard doesn't go all Grady Tripp (or Danny Ainge) and refuse to make choices about his roster composition they could overtake at least five or six teams in the next 18 months. Gabe Farkas - As of February 13th, both the Hornets and T-Wolves are 24-27. I see it as symbolic. They are passing each other: one team on the way up (New Orleans) with a young nucleus and a burgeoning defense, and the other on the way down (Minnesota) with no real strengths and an untradeable star. Kevin Pelton - Would I be crazy to say Houston? I don't see any of the top three teams slipping in the near future and Houston doesn't really have that much young talent, but their front office has done a good job of finding skilled role players like Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes to complement the twin stars. The Rockets rely on a couple of veterans up front in Dikembe Mutombo and Juwan Howard, but they should be replaceable in the years to come. This question also made me think of the discussion here about team ages, so I went and weighted by minutes played for the eight teams in question (the league's seven best and Miami). Results: 31.2 - San Antonio Published on Friday, February 16th, 2007 at 7:53 pm One Response
RJ said on February 17th, 2007 at 7:57 pm :
Lots of good stuff in that mix- forthrightness about past statements and new steps forward. Leave a Reply
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