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In October, the Courtside Times staff gazed into its crystal ball (or spreadsheet) and answered some questions regarding the NBA season. Now that the All-Star Break draws near, it seemed a nice time to revisit the Eastern Conference topics originally covered here.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

1. Of the four 20-something win teams of 2006 (Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York) which will win the most games in 2007?

Jon Nichols - I originally said New York, but I think I'm going to have to change my pick to Toronto (although the Knicks aren't that far behind). The Raptors have played surprisingly well, even though they were without Bosh for a little while. I see the teams finishing in this order:
Toronto
New York
Charlotte
Atlanta

Knickerblogger - I think at this point it's obvious that Toronto will be the winner here, but if you have to pick an underdog it's definately the Knicks. With the development of Curry (at least on the scoring end) and David Lee, they've made good strides this year. Throw in a somewhat rejuvenated Richardson and a decent bench, Isiah could make a run at the Atlantic. The problem is the Knicks defense is still pitiful, and that will sink them in the end.

Kevin Pelton - I said Charlotte, but I was clearly wrong about how long it would take Bryan Colangelo to get things going in Toronto.

Has anyone noticed how much the Raptors have improved defensively? Since 1979, here are the teams that have made the biggest jumps in Defensive Rating relative to league average:

+11.4 - 1997-98 San Antonio
+8.0 - 2001-02 New Jersey
+7.9 - 1999-00 L.A. Lakers
+7.6 - 1993-94 Atlanta
+7.2 - 1995-96 Detroit
+7.2 - 2006-07 TORONTO

Most of these improvements included a coaching change. Gregg Popovich was coaching his first full season, Phil Jackson took over in L.A., Lenny Wilkens moved to Atlanta and Doug Collins was behind Detroit's improvement.

You've also got some obvious player impacts — Tim Duncan and a healthy David Robinson in San Antonio, Jason Kidd (and, to a lesser extent, Kerry Kittles and Richard Jefferson) in New Jersey.

The Raptors stand out as unique. Not only is Sam Mitchell in his third year, but the Raptors haven't added any players with All-Defense track records. Their big defensive additions have been Rasho Nesterovic and Anthony Parker. Very interesting.

Kurt - I'm with you on this one Kevin, I thought it was going to take three years for things to get changed around north of the border. Maybe it's because of the division, but things happened much faster.

2. Which Eastern Conference rookie will have the best season?

Kevin Pelton - Would it be too harsh to say none of the above?

3. This year can more than 1 team in the Atlantic make it to the playoffs?

Jon Nichols - As bad as the East is, I still say no. Miami's going to get one of those last spots, so either New Jersey or Toronto is going to be left out. You never know, though. It's not out of the realm of possibility for a team like Orlando or Indiana to collapse.

Knickerblogger - Not if the Heat are healthy. The loss of Jefferson will hurt the Nets. After the Nets it's just the Knicks, and if you read #1 you know how I feel about their chances.

Kevin Pelton - Can you believe that when I originally answered this question I thought Boston and Philly had the best chance to join the Nets in the playoffs? Now they're battling over ping-pong balls. So much for all that.

4. Does the Ben Wallace signing make the Bulls a contender?

Jon Nichols - I said before that Ben Wallace is not much better than Tyson Chandler, if at all, and so far I've been right. If "contender" means a chance to win the East, then the Bulls are a contender. But they really have no shot at beating one of the powerhouses from the West.

Knickerblogger - The East is so inferior to the West that only the team that makes the Finals will be considered a contender. Hollinger has the Bulls as the East's best team, OTTER has them 4th (10th overall). There are a lot of differing opinions on the Bulls, so this question won't be answered fully until the playoffs.

Kevin Pelton - I was one of the strongest advocates of this signing, but Wallace's net plus-minus has been terrible.

I can feel good about the other half of my prediction, which is that Luol Deng and Ben Gordon would both step forward to produce an improved Chicago offense. The Bulls are unquestionably contenders in the East.

Rob L - Looking back at my answer, I was wrong, and for all the wrong reasons. First, the Bulls were probably contenders before anyway. Second, Tyson Chandler has made improvements this season that I did not forsee. He's carrying an ORtg of 111.38 using 8.09% of Hornets possessions. Wallace uses 8.40% but has an ORtg of 101.46. Chandler has the edge in boards, Wallace in assists and steals. Blocks are about equal, though Wallace commits less fouls. Of course, I don't have many defensive stats that might settle how much more of an asset Wallace might be.

But about Wallace's +/-. Something funny is going on here. Ben Wallace's terrible +/- rating is mirrored by PJ Brown's terrific +/- rating, as one might expect. Brown splits his minutes between PF and C. But Brown has an ORtg of 89.52 using 5.44% of possessions. Brown also has a terrible net PER against opposing centers. Wallace has a nearly even PER. So riddle me this Riddler: If the Bulls have a larger +/- without Wallace, is it Wallace's fault if he is clearly better than his replacement? I have no answer for this. My guess is that it's late and I've made some sort of massive error.

5. Is this the year LeBron James wins the MVP?

Jon Nichols - I predicted that he would, but I don't see it happening, especially with his new injury issues. The Cavs and James himself haven't played well enough to impress the voters. It's really hard to tell who's going to win the award, but I will say this: It will be a big mistake if Gilbert Arenas is called the Most Valuable Player of the NBA.

Knickerblogger - No. This year is all about the West. Right now it's either Nash or Dirk, depending on which team has the better record.

Kevin Pelton - Why would that be a big mistake? I'm not saying I would pick Arenas right now — it's too early to rule out any of at least a half-dozen guys - but when a guy has a +28.8 net plus-minus, he has to at least be seriously considered for MVP, no? I mean that's a ridiculous number. Hibachi!

Rob L - Once again, I was waaaay off. I thought LeBron was a shoe-in. At this point I'm not even sure who I'd give it to, let alone who'll get the award.

Kurt - Count me in the mia culpas here. At the start of the season I thought this was LeBrons to lose. He has.

6. Which of the 8 playoff teams (Detroit, Miami, Cleveland, New Jersey, Washington, Chicago, Indiana, Milwaukee) will take the biggest step back?

Jon Nichols - Right now it looks like the answer to that question is Miami. But for the rest of the season, I'm still sticking with Detroit. Their luck is starting to run out, and Chris Webber is going to hurt that team more than he's going to help it.

Knickerblogger - I had the Pacers, but the winner thus far are the Bucks. You can look at my stat page & see why: Milwaukee ranks 30th on defense. Bogut makes Curry look like Mutombo.

Kevin Pelton - Before looking at last year's standings, I had forgotten what an enormous regular-season difference there was between Detroit and Miami - 12 games, to be exact. So the Pistons have actually still fallen off more thus far than the Heat. They've already matched last year's total of 18 games and will likely have the largest record drop-off of any East team. However, that's not what the question asks, and Miami probably still has a better chance of matching the spirit of this discussion.

Rob L - I keep my previous stance. Detroit for record, Miami for spirit.

7. Darko Milicic: NBA's most improved player in 2007?

Knickerblogger - Can I take back Milicic & Butler? I joked around about Eddy Curry, but could he have a chance at most improved? His per minutes numbers haven't changed, but you know the voters are looking at per game stats. In their eyes, Curry has gone from 13.6ppg/6.0rpg to 19.6ppg/7.0rpg. Another person to consider is David Lee, who might also take home the 6th man award as well.

Kevin Pelton - Darko is still more than four months shy of 22, but it's becoming increasingly clear that his inconsistency means he's a role player in this league. Stardom doesn't seem to be in the cards. There's nothing wrong with that, but the Most Improved Player hype seemed a little silly to me at the time. Kudos to SportsOverload for mentioning Andris Biedrins' name in the MIP discussion.

Published on Friday, February 9th, 2007 at 3:01 pm