by Kevin Pelton | permalink | trackback | comments |
» Visit the author's site: SuperSonics.com

Even if you had missed the news that the Memphis Grizzlies fired Mike Fratello late last month and replaced him, on an interim basis, with Director of Player Personnel Tony Barone, Jr., you could probably figure out the erstwhile Czar of the Telestrator's demise just from seeing the scores of recent Grizzlies games. Last Wednesday, Barone's charges defeated the Golden State Warriors 144-135, setting a franchise scoring record — not just for regulation, the overall scoring record period. Clearly, Fratello's crawlball is out.At the indispensable Memphis Flyer Beyond the Arc Grizzlies blog, Chris Herrington took the opportunity to wonder, "Has there EVER been a team to embark on such a colossal change in style of play in the middle of a season without any roster changes? This has got to be terribly rare situation."

For a team to go from playing one of the league's slowest paces to one of its fastest during a season has to be relatively unprecedented. I was curious, however, if there has been anything similar in recent NBA memory. Calculating pace of play before and after coaching changes would be prohibitively timely, but with an hour or two to spare, I hit upon a faster way — looking at total points scored and allowed per game. Before you revoke my APBRmetrics card, I know this is a sloppy way to look at the issue — the Grizzlies, for example, have seen not only their possessions per game but also their Offensive and Defensive Ratings skyrocket — but since we're looking for an extreme case here, it should be acceptable.

(In case you're curious, the Grizzlies have averaged 97.2 possessions per 48 minutes in five games under Barone, up 10.2% from the 88.2 they averaged under Fratello. Their Offensive Rating has gone from 105.0 to 118.7, their Defensive Rating from 109.6 to 121.2. If maintained over a full season, the Barone Grizzlies would have far and away the league's best offense and worst defense.)

Including a pair of changes by the Denver Nuggets in 2004-05, there were 19 midseason coaching changes made over the previous three NBA seasons. I've ranked them, and this year's Grizzlies, but the percentage increase in total points scored and allowed per game:

Year  Team  TPts1  TPts2  Change
2007   MEM  193.3  233.2   +20.6
2004   ORL  184.1  196.8    +6.9
2005   LAL  195.8  205.5    +5.0
2005   DEN2 192.8  201.5    +4.5
2004   PHO  186.0  194.2    +4.4
2005   POR  187.3  195.2    +4.2
2006   MIA  190.3  197.9    +4.0
2005   NYK  193.2  200.5    +3.8
2004   BOS  189.8  194.8    +2.6

Year  Team  TPts1  TPts2  Change
2005   ORL  200.4  204.5    +2.0
2004   NJN  176.5  179.7    +1.8
2006   SEA  206.4  209.2    +1.4
2005   CLE  191.7  194.2    +1.3
2005   DEN1 192.3  193.7    +0.7
2004   NYK  184.8  186.0    +0.6
2004   PHI  178.9  177.7    -0.7
2005   MIN  193.5  189.6    -2.0
2005   DAL  200.3  195.4    -2.4
2005   MEM  189.5  183.7    -3.1
2004   CHI  190.9  184.4    -3.4

AVERAGE     190.9  195.9    +2.6

(Note that DEN1 compares the Nuggets under Jeff Bzdelik to the 14 games coached by Michael Cooper. DEN2 compares the 42 combined games under Bzdelik and Cooper to George Karl's 40 games.)

Clearly, this year's Grizzlies are an outlier, increasing their total scoring by more than 20%. The 2003-04 Orlando Magic went so far as to hire noted high-pace specialist Paul Westhead, the "Guru of Go," as an assistant coach, and even they barely budged compared to Memphis. Surprisingly, when Mike D'Antoni took over in Phoenix in 2003-04, the increase in total points was not dramatic.

A couple of things jump out at me. One is that virtually every team that changes coaches tends to score and allow more total points. I don't have a good answer as to why this is the case. Is it because these coaches are caretakers who aren't as likely to micromanage as their job-fearing predecessors? Is it a case of teams that are generally out of the postseason hunt by the end of the year playing fast and loose (and not much defense)?

I also notice that what comes around goes around. The second-biggest decrease in total scoring came two years ago, when Hubie Brown retired late in November and was replaced by ... Mike Fratello.

Kevin Pelton serves as beat writer for SUPERSONICS.COM and has provided commentary for 82games.com, Hoopsworld.com and SI.com. He contributes occasional columns to CourtsideTimes.net.

Published on Monday, January 8th, 2007 at 2:32 am